A few weeks ago, faithful readers were rewarded for their
loyalty with a glimpse into my baseball brain, which at this point in my life
is far more insightful and educated than my academic brain. With senioritis in
full effect, my schoolwork is fading into obscurity; but with baseball season
around the corner and my fantasy drafts looming, I am prepared to build on last
week’s National League predictions and follow through with my take on the
American League, and, most importantly, how the postseason will unfold.
Let’s start with the AL East, home to the defending World
Series champion Boston Red Sox and the Evil Empire of the Bronx Bombers. Since
2001, I have been ecstatic to see them spending more and more money without
adding more rings. But as the Yankees get worse and worse, I am getting greedy
and waiting for the season when the Yankees miss the postseason outright. Last
year was a tease, as
overcame a horrible start to capture the Wild Card. But this could be the year
when the Yankees are bad enough that they are limited to watching the Red Sox
tear through another postseason while Hank Steinbrenner kicks himself
repeatedly for losing the Johan Santana sweepstakes. Last year’s freak invasion
of bugs during the playoff series against the Indians is evidence that the
baseball gods are angry with the Yankees’ blatant disregard for the luxury tax
and Alex Rodriguez’s overuse of lip gloss. Hopefully, the baseball gods will
continue to haunt baseball’s most hated team with more years of baseball
futility and stop the Red Sox from continuing down the path they are headed, in
which they are morphing into the 21st century Yankees. The BoSox will
inevitably win the East and are a definite favorite to win it all again, but
could run into trouble with both the Tigers in the League Championship Series
and Mets in the World Series, if they can make it that far. But with a drool-inducing
combination of smart veteran hitters in Big Papi and crazy Manny Ramirez and
young table-setters in Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellisbury, the Red Sox have an
offense capable of putting a 10-spot on any given night. And their pitching
could be even better than it was when they won the championship last year.
Reigning Cy Young winner Josh Beckett is coming off a 20-win season in which he
looked nearly unhittable in the playoffs. Beckett should be a lock for another
18-20 wins, assuming this back spasm business is no big deal, and Dice-K
Matsuzaka will inevitably improve after his struggles in adjusting to Major
League hitters last year. In Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz, the Sox also have two
young starters with very high upside and a chance to round out a formidable
rotation.
The Rays, Jays and Orioles might as well be minor-league
teams in this division, and although they have some potential, by the time the
youngsters are ready to compete with the Yankees, Steinbrenner will have gone
out and signed Prince Fielder, Garret Atkins and every other young free agent
available in a payroll of over $350 million.
While the East is a gimme, the AL Central is a two-team
race. The Tigers, who choked in the home stretch of the playoff race last year,
had a huge off-season, adding Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar
Renteria. Cabrera and Renteria will make
offense even scarier and put the Tigers on the Yankees’ and Red Sox’s level.
But the Tigers do not have the same strong rotation the Sox have, and
Dontrelle, he of the 5.00 ERA, is not the answer. While the Tigers spent the
off-season retooling, the Indians mostly stood pat with a team that tied with
for the Major League lead in wins. The Indians, with C.C. Sabathia and Fausto
Carmona, own the best one-two punch in baseball and have a top-to-bottom lineup
that can score with the best of them. The rest of the division “rivals” are
hardly that, as
away its entire team for prospects over the winter, the White Sox “big” acquisition
was Nick Swisher and the Royals are still years away from relevance under the
Alex Gordon-Billy Butler era. While
spent more and has an offense that any Giant fan would envy (actually, that’s
not saying much; I envy the Marlins’ lineup), I’ll take the Indians to repeat
as division champs behind a bounce-back year from Travis Hafner.
Like in the NL version, the AL West should be the most
competitive. The Angels and Mariners are the favorites, but no matter who wins,
they are doomed for a first-round playoff exit. The Angels, free-spenders as
always, lured Torii Hunter away from the Twins and now have four old and
overpaid outfielders along with Vladimir Guerrero, Garrett Anderson and Gary
Matthews, Jr. The
formidable and the rotation is solid but I like
as division champs instead. The addition of Erik Bedard, an automatic ace,
takes the pressure off of youngster Felix Hernandez, who has choked the last
two years as the leader of the staff. And any lineup with Ichiro at the top is
going to score a lot of runs, so look for the Mariners to pull off a long win
streak in August and then hold off the Angels in September to tame the West.
The Rangers and A’s are both rebuilding, although
fans must be getting frustrated at losing at least one great pitcher every
off-season, and have no chance at making an impact this year.
Now to the fun stuff: the playoff picks.
NLDS:
Cubs over
over Colorado Rockies in four games.
ALDS:
Indians over Seattle Mariners in four games and Detroit Tigers over Boston Red
Sox in five games.
NLCS:
Mets over Chicago Cubs in six games.
ALCS:
Indians over Detroit Tigers in seven games.
World Series:
Mets over Cleveland Indians in six games.
After last year’s historic September collapse, I know that
David Wright and Jose Reyes want postseason glory even more. And Johan Santana
must be aching for a ring after spending his career with the cash-strapped Twins.
The Mets also have a deep and talented rotation capable of matching up with any
others. Even Sabathia and Carmona will have a tough time against Santana in
Game One and Pedro Martinez in Game Two. And with rumors, albeit unconfirmed ones, the Mets could sign Barry Bonds to
replace Moises Alou, there’s no telling what this team is capable of.
