After former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s dramatic exit from the California governor’s race and President Donald Trump’s endorsement of former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton, one lucky Democratic candidate could claw their way back from a total shutout by their Republican opponents to a top-two spot.

The onslaught of attention resulting from this shake-up in the race gives Democrats an opportunity to benefit by zeroing in on the topic of affordability and engaging young voters — but will they capitalize?

A change in leadership would be pivotal for California. Hastening to position himself for a 2028 presidential run, Gov. Gavin Newsom has all but abandoned our state in his refusal to endorse a gubernatorial candidate. Newsom has opted to focus his recent efforts on chopping down the olive tree and positioning himself as Trump’s antithesis, and that’s his prerogative as someone who is aiming for bigger things than California politics. His push to stand up to Trump is popular among Democratic voters, but when the dust from Trump’s second term clears, high housing costs and a stagnant economy will remain major issues. But candidates can still learn from Newsom’s failures: If they want to maintain California’s national influence, they need to focus on the issues that are driving residents out.

Our next governor has to focus on delivering change from within, rather than fighting national battles. California’s beauty and prosperity are legendary — it’s a sanctuary for dreamers and an incubator for forward-thinking ideas. But it can only uphold that reputation for so long when it is becoming increasingly inequitable.  

California is often the butt of the joke for conservatives warning about the dangers of liberal leadership. But since the COVID-19 pandemic, these jokes have come too close to reality. Even loyal Democrats are tired of housing shortages, high crime rates, and homelessness, as evidenced by the exodus in recent years.

Polling shows that a strong majority of Californians put affordability and the cost of living at the top of their priority list in the gubernatorial election, with 78% of likely voters under the age of 35 citing these issues as very important to them. Roughly 34% of Californians have considered leaving the state because of high housing costs, and recent college graduates face a job market that might as well be a brick wall. With worsening housing shortages and the rising cost of living, California will lose young people to less expensive states like Texas, Oregon, and Nevada, exacerbating the issue of our stagnant working-age population.

Newsom pledged to address these issues during his time in office, but fell short. His promises to build 3.5 million homes by 2025, meaningfully reduce homelessness, and offer universal health coverage came up empty, despite his, well, efforts. Since Trump entered his second term, Newsom has made a point of sticking it to him at every opportunity: mocking X posts, frequent media appearances for the sole purpose of bashing Trump, and calling a special election for Proposition 50 last fall as retaliation for Republican gerrymandering. As expected, antagonizing Trump has not changed anything for the average Californian, and for all his talk, Newsom will leave office with a trail of crises in his wake. 

California lost a congressional seat in the 2020 census, and projections assert that it will lose another four seats after the 2030 census as the population declines, primarily as a result of interstate migration. “Let’s increase California’s population!” may not sound like the most appealing anti-Trump rallying cry, but it is grounded in real concerns for the future of the state. 

In the coming years, the rate of increase of California’s elderly population will dwarf that of working-age people, which means higher health care costs and lower tax revenue. The priority should be affordability, which in turn will retain existing residents and attract prospective ones.

Of the top-polling Democrats, only billionaire businessman Tom Steyer has explicitly centered his campaign on housing or affordability, though other candidates list them as high priorities. Former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter dubbed herself the “healthcare governor,” and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has set his sights on reducing crime and homelessness. 

Former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra picked up the bulk of Swalwell’s stranded voters and rose in the polls. Given that a chunk of Swalwell’s base is composed of progressive “MSNBC moms,” it’s not surprising that they flocked to support Becerra, who is running on the promise of “fighting Donald Trump.” 

In comparison to the 2020 election, the turnout among young California voters plummeted in 2024. Meanwhile, Trump reconciled 4 percentage points in California. Preoccupied with financial strains and feeling sidelined by both presidential candidates, young people neglected to participate. Still, Democratic candidates have made no visible efforts to mobilize these voters.

California’s 65% majority approval of Prop 50 tells us that voters want to retaliate against Trump’s actions as they feel increasingly powerless in decision-making at the federal level. When asked about the top problem facing the U.S., Californians most frequently named political extremism and threats to democracy. 

If California lawmakers truly want to amplify the state’s voice on the national stage, they should place more emphasis on maintaining its population — a much more democratic way of preserving influence. 

California is not and never should have been the butt of the joke. Let’s make it the benchmark for progressive leadership.