It’s March again, and that means spring training for baseball, competition heating up in basketball and hockey, and most importantly, my birthday. (I’ll expect lots of presents, cards and well-wishes from my loyal readers, so make sure to e-mail me so I can tell you where to deliver those gifts on the 24th!) They’ve also got this thing called March Madness going on. I heard it is a pretty big deal.
Honestly, anyone who can’t get excited about the NCAA tournament needs to have their pulse checked. It’s two weeks of incredible action, with 65 teams fighting their way through intense competition for berths in the Final Four, and for a chance to be called champions. It’s also a great chance to make some money.
More famous than the buzzer-beaters, the upsets and CBS’ theme music, are the office pools. It’s a contest in the great American tradition of “”I’m smarter than you are, and I can prove it.”” You fill out your bracket, predict your winners, throw your money in the pot and cheer like you’ve never cheered before — for Western Kentucky, Austin Peay or Valparaiso — to pull off the upset.
I won the illustrious Guardian pool last year, and I hope to defend my title this year. While a full scouting report on all the teams helps, there’s still a lot of luck involved.
Pull out a pencil, grab a sheet of paper and read carefully. I’m about to divulge three secrets that will help you be competitive in your local office pool, and put you a lucky break or two away from taking home a pile of cash. Ready? Here we go.
1. Pay attention to the pods — The tournament committee set up a new system last year in which highly-ranked teams will play their first two games in a sub-regional “”pod”” close to home. Teams that play in or near their home cities are more likely to avoid upsets than teams playing in more neutral situations where the fans tend to rally around an underdog.
2. Twelves and 10s are wild — The tournament is seeded 1 through 16 in four different regions with the top seed playing the 16th seed in the first round, the second seed playing the 15th seed, and so on. The general rule is to pick the favorite, but the knowledgeable player separates him or herself from the field by correctly predicting the upsets. The 5 vs. 12 match-ups and the 7 vs. 10 contests are traditionally ripe for upsets. The fifth-seeded team is generally the third- or fourth-best team from a power conference, while the 12th seed is likely a team who played its way in by winning several straight games in a small conference tournament. Seventh seeds are usually ranked just outside the top 25, and often finish their seasons unimpressively. This year’s 10th seeds could include squads like Alabama, Indiana or Arizona State, who struggled at times, but remain very talented.
3. When in doubt, trust the seed — The selection committee works very hard to ensure that teams are placed where they deserve to be. Although it may be trendy to pick the upset, eight seeds will beat nine seeds more often than not, and four seeds will usually get by five seeds.
Bear in mind that it wouldn’t be madness if it were predictable, but it wouldn’t be fun then, either. Selection Sunday is March 16, so go sign up for a pool and take your best shot. You never know who this year’s Cinderella story might be.
