It seems like just yesterday that all 32 NFL teams kicked off their seasons with the hope that this would be their year. Now, only the 14 best remain, and the rest will have to save their delusions for September. Sorry, Cowboys fans, this in fact was not your year.
Each team that remains has made it here for a reason — whether it be a talented roster, a strong coaching staff, or just a lot of luck — but none are without their flaws. As The UCSD Guardian’s 2024 fantasy football champion, I feel it is my duty to share one reason why each of the remaining teams have the potential to win it all, and why all but one will ultimately fall short.
AFC
No. 7 Denver Broncos
Why they will win the Super Bowl: Defense wins championships and the Broncos have one of the best in the league. Headlined by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Patrick Surtain, the Broncos have the NFL’s third best scoring defense and lead the league with a whopping 63 sacks. The Broncos defense carried them to a victory in Super Bowl 50, and with an equally talented defense, they can do it again this year.
Why they will not win the Super Bowl: Their offense has surprised a lot of people this year, but it still consists of too many young and inexperienced pieces. I do not “Bo-lieve” the offense will be enough to propel this team through a daunting AFC.
No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers
Why they will win: With 18 consecutive winning seasons under his belt, it’s safe to say Mike Tomlin’s still got it. He has led his team to the Lombardi Trophy before, and with a top-tier defense, who’s to say he can’t do it again? Tomlin’s got a Steelers win in sight.
Why they will not win: Saying the Steelers limped into the playoffs is an understatement — it’s more like they got their legs chopped off. Losing four straight games to end the regular season usually doesn’t foreshadow success in the postseason.
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers
Why they will win: Long-time fans of mine (my parents)will remember I called for a serious overhaul of the Chargers coaching staff midway through last season. See what happens when you listen to my advice? Under head coach Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, the Chargers have the NFL’s fewest points allowed and look like a completely rejuvenated team. These coaches have what it takes to give the bolts their first Super Bowl victory.
Why they will not win: The Justin Herbert to Ladd McConkey connection has been great, but that is probably because there are few other options in the passing game. Quentin Johnston looked strong in the Chargers’ regular season finale, but he’s going to need to keep playing like that if they want to make a deep playoff run. Even then, they’re still a long way from a complete offense, and likely a shot at the championship.
No. 4 Houston Texans
Why they will win: C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins have been great in their first two seasons together, and acquiring Joe Mixon adds a rushing attack the Texans did not have when they won a playoff game last year. This could be the winning edge they needed.
Why they will not win: While Stroud is still a star in the making, this season has certainly been a sophomore slump for him. Meanwhile, the offense has been hit with injuries and does not look like itself of late, while the defense is middle of the pack at best.
No. 3 Baltimore Ravens
Why they will win: Lamar Jackson is having what could be another MVP season and Derrick Henry leads the AFC in rushing yards. This duo is fun to watch, and even with a complete team around them, they alone have the firepower to finally get Lamar his elusive Super Bowl victory.
Why they will not win: Despite similarly promising seasons in the past, the Jackson-led Ravens have struggled in the postseason. While the defense has stepped up in the last few weeks, they have given up big numbers to high-caliber teams — and the Raiders. Against teams like the Chiefs and Bills, reverting back to early-season form is certainly possible, and would mark another ugly end to a strong season.
No. 2 Buffalo Bills
Why they will win: Josh Allen. He’s playing at an MVP level. Need I say more?
Why they will not win: The Bills are another AFC team susceptible to choking in big moments. Especially without any major weapons in the passing game, this team may struggle if they encounter the playoff Chiefs again.
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs
Why they will win: The Chiefs have just won back-to-back Super Bowls, and at least from a record standpoint, they have played better this season than ever before.
Why they will not win: The Chiefs have had close call after close call all season. Their luck has to run out eventually … right?
NFC
No. 7 Green Bay Packers
Why they will win: Jordan Love has already won a playoff game as a No. 7 seed, and Josh Jacobs revitalized the Packers’ offense in the back half of the season. Their defense has been good, too; with eight on the season, Xavier McKinney has the NFL’s second most interceptions. This is a complete team, and may break through as the first seventh seeded team to win the Super Bowl.
Why they will not win: The Packers finished 1-5 in NFC North play and will need to face at least one of their juggernaut divisional rivals again if they want to make it through the playoffs. The odds of winning against the Lions or Vikings now are not in their favor.
No. 6 Washington Commanders
Why they will win: Jayden Daniels has turned around a struggling Commanders team with his clutch plays and dual-threat nature, which will likely lead to him winning Rookie of the Year. Their rushing attack has been great as well, finishing with the third most rushing yards in the NFL. No rookie quarterback has made it to a Super Bowl, but Daniels has what it takes to be the first.
Why they will not win: Dan Quinn’s most notable playoff appearance as a coach came in 2016 when the Atlanta Falcons built a 28-3 lead over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI…we all know how that one ended. Quinn hasn’t had much playoff success — let alone experience — since then. This year is unlikely to be different.
No. 5 Minnesota Vikings
Why they will win: Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison have been great, but the Vikings’ defense has been even better. Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel are the NFL’s best linebacker duo, and frankly, no other pair can match their pass-rushing ability. This Brian Flores defense is playing at a Super Bowl level.
Why they will not win: Darnold has been known to throw the ball to ghosts over his own teammates, and he is the leader of this team. They’ll likely need to face a Lions team Darnold struggled against this season, which does not bode well for their Super Bowl chances.
No. 4 Los Angeles Rams
Why they will win: This Rams team is eerily similar to the Super Bowl-winning 2021 team. Despite losing Aaron Donald to retirement in the offseason, they are arguably even better than before. In the last two seasons, they have added Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Jared Verse, among others. If they won it all before, they can surely do it again.
Why they will not win: Matthew Stafford is 36 and not quite playing at the same level he was when he won it all for the Rams in 2021. It is hard to imagine him returning to those levels anytime soon, and as the focal point in the offense, this regression could be costly.
No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why they will win: Looks like we were wrong about Baker Mayfield. He’s been great these last two seasons, and he still has Mike Evans — coming off another 1,000-yard season — to throw the ball to. It also seems like Bucky Irving was the steal of the draft, accounting for over 1,500 scrimmage yards, despite beginning the year as the second-string running back. This offense has found an answer for any defense in the league, and could continue to torch these teams all the way through the playoffs.
Why they will not win: The Buccaneers have a lot of great players but are missing that one elite player to put them over the edge. In 2020, that was Tom Brady. Can Mayfield step up and fill that role now? I say probably not.
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles
Why they will win: Saquon Barkley joined the Eagles in the offseason and immediately joined elite company by becoming the ninth player to ever top 2,000 rushing yards. Add that to a defense that has given up the fewest total yards per game, and this team is tough to beat. It’s hard to imagine this team not making a Super Bowl run.
Why they will not win: Jalen Hurts has been out these last few weeks with a concussion, and may not be 100% when he returns. While his backups have been good, they do not have the talent or experience needed to beat the best teams in the league.
No. 1 Detroit Lions
Why they will win: This team has pretty much everything you would expect in a Super Bowl champion: an incredibly talented roster on both sides of the ball, a great coaching staff, and a fan base with the hunger and energy to will its team to its first Super Bowl victory.
Why they will not win: The Lions have dealt with injury after injury, especially on defense. While Dan Campbell’s high-risk, high-reward approach has worked in the past, it also held his team back from the Super Bowl last year. It’s possible that same aggression could backfire for the Lions again, extending their Super Bowl drought.
