The
rains may suppress the feeling that springtime has come, but in my world,
spring starts as soon as pitchers and catchers report to spring training to
signal the start of a new baseball season.
The shadow of steroids will hang over the sport as long as
liars and cheaters continue to be exposed and until the union gives in to blood
testing. But the 2008 season has enough young stars — power hitters that are
juice-free and promising pitchers poised to tame aging sluggers — and
storylines to distract us from congressional hearings that provide no closure
beyond B-12 excuses.
With that in mind, I’m proud to present predictions for an
exciting season even though opening day is more than a month away. Since Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds will not
find new homes other than prison cells, most teams’ rosters are pretty set so
now’s the time for a fearless forecast. In this issue, the National League will
be dissected and the American League and postseason predictions will follow.
Let’s start with the local team’s and my hometown team’s
division: the pitching-rich NL West. Though I’m a Giants fan, I have no doubt
they will be the cellar-dwellers the entire season with a chance to lose 100
games unless young studs Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum can each win 15 one-run
games.
The top four spots are a free-for-all, with each team
capable of putting together a great season. As we saw last year, two teams
could make the playoffs out of the West and chances are the division title
won’t be decided until the final weekend. I’ll take the Diamondbacks, who
became the favorites when they acquired Dan Haren to create a formidable 1-2
punch with sinker-baller Brandon Webb and last year’s All-Star game starter
Haren.
prospects that showed promise last year and will only improve as they mature in
their peak baseball years.
The defending league champion
should be able to grab the Wild Card again, maybe this time without the
heartbreak for Trevor Hoffman and the Padres, thanks to their amazing offense
led by Matt Holiday, Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki and Garrett Atkins.
As for
own Padres, the team continues to do just enough offensively to compete but not
dominate. With amazing pitching in Jake Peavy and Chris Young, the Padres don’t
need much, but outside of Adrian Gonzalez, the Friars are a bunch of streaky
hitters. Mike Cameron’s departure rids the team of one inconsistent,
strikeout-prone and, now, suspended player, but Khalil Greene does not provide
Gonzalez with the lineup protection he needs for the Padres to be a force in
the West.
The Dodgers are capable of being relevant in September and
have a bright future with youngsters Matt Kemp and James Loney, but old-timers
Nomar Garciaparra and Jason Schmidt must go and Andruw Jones isn’t capable of
35+ homers or a .250 average anymore.
The NL Central is nowhere near as competitive as the West
and looks to be a two-team race between the big-spending Cubs and the powerful
Brew Crew.
the playoffs behind Prince Fielder’s father-hatred-fueled season and new hero
to the Jewish people Ryan Braun’s tremendous rookie season. That
middle-of-the-order combination alone can keep the Brewers within range of the
Cubs, who are my pick for the division title.
Lou Piniella may need to kick some dirt and throw a base on
Opening Day to keep the Cubs motivated from the get-go but the team will get a
lot better with Alfonso Soriano playing a whole season and the arrival of
Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome. Besides their talented pitching staff and
solid one through eight lineup, the Cubbies also seem like candidates for a
2004 Red Sox-esque curse-ending World Series win. With more than $200 million
spent in the past two offseasons, now is the time for the Cubs to back up Ryan
Dempster’s bold prediction and be rid of the Steve Bartman aftertaste.
The Cardinals’ lineup looks bad with one of the game’s best
hitters in Albert Pujols penciled in. But
he looks destined for the disabled list when his elbow inevitably blows
out, which would put
offense on the Giants’ anemic level. The Astros could put up some nice numbers
with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and new acquisition Miguel Tejada — the Mitchell
Report-exposed and injury-prone shortstop who is in the twilight of his career.
But without any proven pitchers beyond Roy Oswalt,
will be limited to playing spoiler in September.
The Reds have more promising talent in their system than any
team in the majors, but Joey Votto, Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce all look at
least a year away from realizing their potential and, therefore, Big Red looks
destined for another fourth-place finish. Picking up the rear will be the
Pirates, who have been rebuilding for a decade now and seem to have made no
progress.
No one takes the NL seriously, but there is a real
possibility that the 2008 World Series champions come out of the NL East. While
the defending division champion Phillies have a talented team and Ryan Howard
is one of the most exciting players in the game, the Mets got immeasurably better
with the addition of the unanimous choice for best pitcher in the game, Johan
Santana.
anything in the deal to acquire the two-time Cy Young winner and with Jose
Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran anchoring the lineup, the Mets don’t
even need Santana and the rest of their stellar staff to be lights out to win a
ton of ballgames. The Mets should win at least 90 games and is capable of the
100-win milestone barring a crippling collapse like the one that cost them a
playoff appearance last year.
The Phillies have a lineup, with Howard, Chase Utley and
Jimmy Rollins, capable of trading runs with the Mets, but have starting
pitching problems outside of Cole Hamels. Even if Hamels can outperform Santana
in a matchup of aces, the Mets have Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez
waiting after Santana to win any series.
The Phillies should compete with the Brewers and
for the NL Wild Card but have no chance of pulling off the comeback they did
last year to win the division. After the Mets and Phillies, the Braves should
be just good enough to take third and finish over .500, but not to contend with
the top dogs.
will battle for fourth place with only fantasy players interested in Hanley
Ramirez’s production paying attention to either team’s meaningless seasons.
