Admissions analysts predicted it, but statistical trends made the forecast simple: Asians will overtake whites as a majority on college campuses.
In some cases, they already have:The number of Asian enrollees first surpassed the number of whites at UCSD in 2002. Last year, UCSD again admitted more Asians than whites. The gap is narrowing across the university – the number of Asian UC enrollees in 2005 was only 1 percent behind the number of whites. Chicanos are the third-largest group, but only number about one-third the percentage of Asians. Over the past decade, Asians have become a powerhouse race in UC admissions, excelling especially in enrollment figures.
“”The fact Asian students are well-qualified for admission to the university – at rates significantly higher than other groups – and that they apply, are admitted and choose to enroll at [the University of California] at high rates is a major factor in [the university’s] enrollment outcomes,”” UC Office of the President Director of Undergraduate Admissions Susan B. Wilbur said.
The beginnings of UC Asian representation may even manifest in public high schools, where the number of Asians enrolling and graduating is increasing nationally, according to “”Knocking on the College Door,”” a 2003 study by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. In the same year, the California Postsecondary Education Commission found that the rate of Asian high school students eligible for admission to the UC system is about two and a half times the overall rate. Given their high eligibility rates, the typical Asian student usually looks to the most affordable college education, Wilbur said.
“”The cost of a UC education is undoubtedly an additional factor that contributes to student enrollment decisions,”” she said. “”Many Asian students have a low family income and qualify for [the university’s] financial aid programs.””
But the biggest force behind the inflating enrollment numbers may be Proposition 209, according to Steve Goodman, an educational consultant for Top Colleges, a Washington, D.C. firm that counsels students on admission processes.
The 1996 legislation abolished all considerations of race in public-college admissions, effectively killing affirmative action in the state. The law emphasizes concrete achievements – a trait especially strong among Asians, giving them an advantage over other racial groups, Goodman said.
“”Asians are the single largest beneficiary race of [Proposition 209],”” he said.
With Proposition 209 in place, Goodman said he sees no end to the rising trend.
“”If colleges are going to keep looking just at the hard numbers, then the Asian population will be the largest in higher education,”” he said.
