A panel of political experts met last week at UCSD’s Institute of the Americas to discuss the worldwide repercussions of North Korea’s recent nuclear test, including the impact of economic sanctions and how the test will affect the political stability of northeast Asia.
From left, northeast Asian issues specialist Tai Ming Cheung, political science professor Susan Shirk and Korea-Pacific studies professor Stephen Haggard discuss a nuclear North Korea.
The panel included political science professor and UC Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation Director Susan Shirk, Korea-Pacific studies professor Stephan Haggard and research fellow and northeast Asian and Chinese security issues specialist Tai Ming Cheung.
The panel focused on reactions from the United States, China, Japan and South Korea, that, along with Russia, have participated in six-party talks with North Korea over the past few years in an effort to curb the country’s development of nuclear weapons.
Haggard began the discussion with background history on the North Korean nuclear fiasco, organizing the North Korean timeline by major events such as the six-party talks and President George W. Bush’s notorious 2002 State of the Union speech, during which he grouped North Korea, along with Iran and Iraq, in “an axis of evil.”
“North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens,” Bush said. “States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger.”
Haggard also discussed the resonating effects of recent sanctions on North Korea’s civilian population, which has been plagued by famine and poor economic conditions for decades.
“We are going to see food shortages in the spring,” Haggard said. “It’s going to add a humanitarian dimension to the issues.”
Shirk focused her discussion on China’s influence in the North Korean nuclear test and stressed China’s powerful position as one of North Korea’s main allies.
“China holds the key to ending North Korea’s nuclear program,” Shirk said.
Shirk then went into further detail regarding China’s relationship with Japan and how that relationship has been strained by the nuclear test. Shirk said China, which has had a historically strained relationship with Japan, had finally gained ground after a recent visit from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Addressing Japan’s concerns during the trip, China’s leaders assured Abe of a non-nuclear North Korea. However, the nuclear test soon after proved otherwise.
“The timing of the test is viewed by China as a big slap in the face,” Shirk said.
Cheung addressed North Korea’s ideology and political motivations. Cheung viewed the nuclear test as a bargaining chip that North Korea could use to achieve its goal: the removal of economic sanctions imposed by the United States. Therefore, the recent test was, he said, just a taste of things to come.
“North Koreans will still continue to test their nuclear capabilities as well as their missile capabilities,” Cheung said.
Tensions between North Korea and the United States have escalated in recent years, especially in the wake of the stalled six-party talks.
Those tensions came to a head on Oct. 3, when North Korea announced its intentions to conduct a nuclear test regardless of any international dissent. Six days later, North Korea made good on its word, detonating a device underground that triggered seismic readings throughout northeast Asia. U.S. officials estimated that the explosion was equivalent to 500 metric tons of TNT.
In response to the country’s claim, the United Nations Security Council issued a unanimous condemnation of the explosion.
However, North Korea’s U.N. ambassador, Pak Kil-yon, said last week that the council should “congratulate” his country’s scientists and researchers on their achievement, instead of issuing what he called “notorious, useless and reckless resolutions.”
As of Oct. 13, air samples taken from North Korea are consistent with a nuclear test, according to U.S. intelligence officials as reported on CNN.
The U.N. Security Council passed another unanimous resolution on Oct. 14 imposing sanctions on the isolated communist country.
The resolution requires that Pyongyang not conduct further nuclear tests or launch any type of ballistic missile, and demands that the country abandon all programs to develop weapons of mass destruction.
It also bans trade in luxury goods, and requires member states to freeze the assets of North Korean entities and individuals.
The North Korean government has called the sanctions a declaration of war.
